Flash is coming to Windows Mobile devices, and now Engadget speculates Adobe will develop it for the iPhone even though Apple has said no and remains unenthusiastic. Adobe later backed down on their prediction of imminent Flash for the iPhone.
The most compelling explanation for Apple’s reluctance is that Flash would open a new site of APIs with new applications that Apple doesn’t want. However, Flash would also require a change to Apple’s ban on interpreted languages, which are a potential security hole.
Many Flashaholics have said that Apple now can’t resist the inevitability of Flash for the iPhone, but that’s hope and not economic reality. Apple’s biggest rival in North America is Research in Motion, and the BlackBerry also lacks Flash.
The one place where I do think Apple needs Flash (actually Flash Lite) is Japan, where 80% of the current Nokia phones run some form of Flash. Of course, if Apple adopts, endorses or enables Flash for Japanese websites (or even bundles it), then it would be hard not to make it a use download worldwide.