In archiving all my posts from last year, I was reminded of the accurate (and not so accurate) predictions from last year.
For 2009, one of my resolutions has to be to stop making iPhone predictions. In 2008, I repeated rumors that Flash was coming Real Soon Now; it‘s not here. In May 2007, I doubted Apple would sell 10 million iPhones in 2009 because of the AT&T exclusive, but of course that was wrong. (At least I was more accurate in my iPhone assessment than the CTO of Motorola, who is now CTO of Cisco).
A few other postings hit closer to the mark. In April, I noted the moral hazard of the government bailing out troubled banks. Throughout the year, I noted how Web 2.0 business models are fundamentally flawed and Yahoo was foolish and/or arrogant to turn down Microsoft’s money
Still other things don’t seem to change:
- Google is battling Microsoft and Nokia for Total World Domination
- Sun, Sprint and Motorola are in trouble,
- free municipal Wi-Fi is dead,
- paid Wi-Fi hotspots are dying even quicker than newspapers.
Some issues from last year that remain unresolved:
- The love-hate relationship of content owners with YouTube: it offers unmatched reach, but negligible revenue.
- What impact will Google’s gPhone/Android/OHA initiative on the industry.
- How will industry deal with patent trolls?
One prediction I will stand by: digital TV is coming, and analog TV will be gone by mid-February.